well...LAST DAY of warm weather here on the hill....After tommrow, its BELOW freezing and staying that way...with snow EVERYDAY according to the weather forcasts...we have 7'' of snow now, so mabye this rain will make it ice...who knows....bye bye
Here is the highly detailed snowmobiler specific weather forecast for the Southern Tug Hill riding area curtousy of the Penn Mountain weather man himself ... Riding Rich! (Rich is a weatherman for a local Utica news station and member of the Penn Mountain Snowmobile club)
Interesting mix of good news and bad news here to digest...
GOOD NEWS: Cold air hanging in much tougher today than I thought... granted it is above freezing and the snow and ice is melting, but not as fast. Time is now on our side... I'm hopefull we'll have something left of this to build on starting later tonight.
BAD NEWS: Once the warm air gets here, it will hit the base hard and fast. 60's in Western NY right now... There was a time I loved January weather like that, but it was long ago. I digress.. It may only be now a 4-8 hour window with this really warm (50+) stuff, gusty winds, and humid conditions, but it may be all that's needed for a wipeout. A chance we can save it, but a close call. Hopefully we can save it because...
GOOD NEWS: This front will bring the cold air first, then the precipitation. IE - Temps drop fast, then it starts to rain... It may be back into the 37-43 when it starts to rain, which is better than 55, and with temps falling fast, a good part of this could fall as SNOW!!! Calling this changeover is very tricky... being off by 2-3 hours could ruin it, BUT, I think the 1"-3" the NWS is going with is a safe bet. If it changes FAST and it's mostly snow... 3"-6" of wet snow is not out of the question. You've gotta hope for that because:
BAD NEWS: Just like Christmas, the lake effect parameters are not looking as favorable for a real blasting of our area and north... still enough for some snow and we will get some... but measuring in feet instead of inches looks less likely now as we are getting closer.
GOOD NEWS: We may get Lake Effect in Oneida County and on our trails immediately after this 1"-3" of snow Friday Morning, which may add some bonus inches, but it breaks down and hovers closer to the lake and further north by Saturday AM.
BAD NEWS: If we get the snow, say 6" worth and a little snow and ice left underneath... we ride probably for the holiday weekend but the trails get shot fast with the traffic, and we may not have enough lake stuff to groom...
GOOD NEWS: Unlike last weekend, it should be could enough to freeze things down, if not totally, mostly.
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