Preliminary Winter outlook

230 Views 7 Replies 7 Participants Last post by pasnownut, Oct 2, 2006

pasnownut

Discussion Starter · Oct 2, 2006

Read this earlier and sounds pretty good for many of us in the Northeast. After getting pounded last year, the west sounds less snowy. Well see.
Nut

AccuWeather.com Issues Preliminary Winter Outlook
El Niño's Influence Points to Milder Start, Colder End Than Normal for Heating-Oil-Dependent Northeast

(State College, PA - September 19, 2006) - AccuWeather.com Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe "edit for bad language"i predicts that the coming winter is shaping up to be quite different than last year's. The El Niño pattern that has noticeably impacted the 2006 hurricane season will lead to colder temperatures for the northeastern U.S. and Midwest, and a milder winter for the West Coast.

As outlined in "edit for bad language"i's preliminary seasonal outlook-the full 2006-2007 AccuWeather.com Winter Forecast will be released in mid-October-the winter in the Northeast and Midwest is expected to begin mild before turning significantly colder in January and February as cold air pours down from Canada. Overall, New York City and Boston are expected to average slightly below normal for the three-month winter period of December through February. The winter along the East Coast and Gulf Coast will be marked by stormy weather, because of the pattern created by the El Niño that formed this summer and was identified by "edit for bad language"i in the late spring.

El Niño and the East Coast Winter
An El Niño-a cyclical warming of Pacific Ocean waters-directs strong wind currents that tend to hinder hurricane development in the Atlantic Basin during the summer, and lead to a more active southern jet stream in the winter, which creates a wetter-than-normal pattern for the South and Southeast U.S. This precipitation works its way up the East Coast, bringing more storms to the region. "While the East Coast will most likely experience more precipitation, it is too early to tell whether the majority of this precipitation will be in the form of rain or snow," said "edit for bad language"i. "Timing will be the key in the major cities of the East Coast. Cold air from the north arriving too early or too late would lead to more rain and less snow."

Added "edit for bad language"i, "Given the overall pattern and the water temperature profile we expect, the region will likely see one or two major Nor'easters."

Winter's Effect on Energy Prices
"While temperatures in the Northeast will start out warmer than normal, a shift to colder weather during the final two months of winter will result in slightly below normal temperatures for the three-month period. This will lead to consumers needing more heating oil or natural gas than they did during last year's exceptionally mild winter," said AccuWeather.com Director of Forecast Operations Ken Reeves. "Chicago, which is dependent on natural gas heat, experienced relatively warm winters the past few years, and we expect this pattern to change this year. The last time we had an El Niño-the winter of 2002-2003-Chicago had to contend with slightly colder-than-average temperatures."

"That said," Added Reeves, "in most areas, we do not expect sustained exceptionally extreme temperatures, so energy prices will likely react more to economic and political conditions than to meteorological ones this winter."

Winter in the Rockies and the West Coast
As with previous El Niño years, a large high-pressure system will likely sit over the Rockies this winter, which will keep conditions relatively drier and warmer than normal. "Skiers and ski-slope operators in the Rockies may not be pleased by the prospect of less snow this winter," said Reeves. "Of potentially greater impact, though, will be the effects that a drier winter will have on areas in the region that rely on waters that come from the melting snow pack. With the possibility of less snow this winter, there could be less water available next year."

As for the West Coast, "edit for bad language"i forecasts that temperatures will be above average across much of the region.

AccuWeather.com's preliminary winter outlook is based upon expected jet stream patterns across North America and adjacent areas, combined with a weak El Niño.

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brs2002

· #2 · Oct 2, 2006

ya whatever........

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Drifthopper

· #3 · Oct 2, 2006

To early too tell......believe it when ya see it.

""While the East Coast will most likely experience more precipitation, it is too early to tell whether the majority of this precipitation will be in the form of rain or snow," said "edit for bad language"i. "Timing will be the key in the major cities of the East Coast. Cold air from the north arriving too early or too late would lead to more rain and less snow." "

They're guessing....

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skidoosky

· #4 · Oct 2, 2006

It's pretty hard to believe the forecasters for this winters weather when the can't even give an accurate forecast for the days and week ahead .

some days they call for sunny and hot but it ends up pooring and being cold

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biggziff

· #5 · Oct 2, 2006

Drifthopper said:
To early too tell......believe it when ya see it.

""While the East Coast will most likely experience more precipitation, it is too early to tell whether the majority of this precipitation will be in the form of rain or snow," said "edit for bad language"i. "Timing will be the key in the major cities of the East Coast. Cold air from the north arriving too early or too late would lead to more rain and less snow." "

They're guessing....

[snapback]917912[/snapback]

That *is* what they do.

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rampage

· #6 · Oct 2, 2006

notice when they talk about 'el nino' they usually won't even mention the great lakes region. I think all 'el nino' means for michigan is that there will be a lot of radical temp swings, and lots of freeze and thaw cycles. That can be a good thing or a bad thing. If it doesn't thaw to bare ground each time, a bunch of thaws can leave us with a foot or more of solid ice at the bottom of the trail come march/april. If it does thaw to bare ground, the snows will just keep melting as they fall sometimes.
We've had 'el nino' years that really sucked for snow cover, but we've had other years where they said it was 'el nino' and winter was awesome.

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tughillterror

· #7 · Oct 2, 2006

Well considering every source of weather info has predicted a heavy winter for the northeast, i'd have to start believing them. I figure if you take an average of about 20 weathermen (or women) and their predictions for the winter to come, you start to have a more accurate reading.

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pasnownut

Discussion Starter · #8 · Oct 2, 2006

Drifthopper said:
To early too tell......believe it when ya see it.

""While the East Coast will most likely experience more precipitation, it is too early to tell whether the majority of this precipitation will be in the form of rain or snow," said "edit for bad language"i. "Timing will be the key in the major cities of the East Coast. Cold air from the north arriving too early or too late would lead to more rain and less snow." "

They're guessing....

[snapback]917912[/snapback]

Of course they are. But what people need to understand in an el Nino year is that both jet streams usually STAY in North America. That is why it can be plenty of fun and games. If you reread his post he says that the big cities, I-95 corridor, costal plain or piedmont regions...whatever you call it basically SE of the mountains, the warm air can advect out in front of the storms to erode the cold air leading to "tossups". It typically bodes better in the Mts. as the cold air deep enough to support snow isn't pushed away as quickly. A mild el nino is a snow lovers dream for the east coast. Keep em crossed gang.
Nut

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